Interesting patterns with release dates!

[CrystalRaine 77]

As everyone's debating when precisely we are going to get a release date, I decided to do some investigating and find out when release dates were announced for KH games in the past. I found a very interesting pattern.

 

Every single Kingdom Hearts game has had its Japanese release date announced no earlier than 2-4 months in advance. For instance, KH2's Japanese release date was announced in September 2005, less than 3 months before its release in December of the same year. I will provide links to articles as evidence: 

 

 KH: http://www.gamespot.com/articles/squares-kingdom-hearts-set-for-a-march-release-in-japan/1100-2836762/

(Announced January 2002, released March 2002)

 

CoM: http://uk.ign.com/articles/2004/08/26/kingdom-hearts-dated-in-japan-2

(Announced August 2004, released November 2004)

 

KH2: http://uk.ign.com/articles/2005/09/28/kingdom-hearts-ii-dated-in-japan

(Announced September 2005, released December 2005) 

 

Days: http://uk.ign.com/articles/2009/03/05/first-look-kingdom-hearts-dsi

(Announced March 2009, released May 2009. N.B: Was originally slated for Winter 2008, pushed back to Spring 2009)

 

BBS: http://uk.ign.com/articles/2009/10/21/kingdom-hearts-dated-in-japan

(Announced October 2009, released January 2010)

 

Re:Coded: http://uk.ign.com/articles/2010/07/20/kingdom-hearts-recoded-dated-in-japan

(Announced July 2010, released October 2010)

 

DDD: http://www.g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/720023/kingdom-hearts-3d-dream-drop-distance-japanese-release-date-announced/

(Announced January 2012, released March 2012)

 

1.5: http://gematsu.com/2012/12/kingdom-hearts-1-5-hd-remix-japanese-release-date-set

(Announced December 2012, released March 2013)

 

2.5: http://www.siliconera.com/2014/06/06/kingdom-hearts-2-5-hd-remix-arrives-japan-october-collectors-pack/

(Announced June 2014, released October 2014)

 

What does this tell us about KH3's release date? Well, not much, but depending on your position, it could give us an idea on when exactly we can expect that revelation:

 

If Square decides to stick to this pattern (and they may not; for all we know they could change their marketing strategy), then it's pretty likely we're not going to get it at D23 on Sunday.

 

If you  believe we will get a release date announcement at D23 in Tokyo, then theoretically, the game could come out as early as January 2016.

 

If you believe the game won't come out until the end of 2016 at the earliest, then we probably won't get a final announcement until later next year. 

 

Once we get some more information on Sunday, then we should get a clearer picture, but I just thought this info would be interesting to share!

Edited August 14, 2015 by CrystalRaine

[sagman12PC 280]

I honestly do not believe that KH3 will release in 2016 and here's why:

 

FFXV is already confirmed to be releasing sometime in 2016 according to Director Hajime Tabata. A precise release date will be given at PAX later this year. Based on this information alone, Square Enix would never release BOTH of their most anticipated titles from their respective franchises (FFXV and KH3) within the same year. Square Enix is a business and businesses exist to make profit. Square Enix needs to make a profit each fiscal year and for 2016 their main profit will come from FFXV and the Final Fantasy franchise. Kingdom Hearts III will most likely release the following year in 2017 as it will be the main profit maker for Square Enix for fiscal year 2017. Now if we REALLY wanna speculate release dates, the FF7 remake will probably release sometime in 2018 as it will be the main profit maker for Square Enix in fiscal year 2018. You see where i am going here? Square Enix needs to spread out their releases to make profit each year

[KeybladeLordCheeseCurd 1,542]

I honestly do not believe that KH3 will release in 2016 and here's why: FFXV is already confirmed to be releasing sometime in 2016 according to Director Hajime Tabata. A precise release date will be given at PAX later this year. Based on this information alone, Square Enix would never release BOTH of their most anticipated titles from their respective franchises (FFXV and KH3) within the same year. Square Enix is a business and businesses exist to make profit. Square Enix needs to make a profit each fiscal year and for 2016 their main profit will come from FFXV and the Final Fantasy franchise. Kingdom Hearts III will most likely release the following year in 2017 as it will be the main profit maker for Square Enix for fiscal year 2017. Now if we REALLY wanna speculate release dates, the FF7 remake will probably release sometime in 2018 as it will be the main profit maker for Square Enix in fiscal year 2018. You see where i am going here? Square Enix needs to spread out their releases to make profit each year

Then what would be the 2016 KH game?

[sagman12PC 280]

Then what would be the 2016 KH game?

most likely Unchained X

[Exiblade7 1,917]

most likely Unchained X

but KHX is coming out soon in Japan and we may get the game in a month or two. 

[sagman12PC 280]

but KHX is coming out soon in Japan and we may get the game in a month or two. 

there might not be anything KH related coming out in 2016 then. The only other possible thing is a DDD Remaster for PS4/XB1 but this hasn't been announced yet

[CrystalRaine 77]

I honestly do not believe that KH3 will release in 2016 and here's why:

 

FFXV is already confirmed to be releasing sometime in 2016 according to Director Hajime Tabata. A precise release date will be given at PAX later this year. Based on this information alone, Square Enix would never release BOTH of their most anticipated titles from their respective franchises (FFXV and KH3) within the same year. Square Enix is a business and businesses exist to make profit. Square Enix needs to make a profit each fiscal year and for 2016 their main profit will come from FFXV and the Final Fantasy franchise. Kingdom Hearts III will most likely release the following year in 2017 as it will be the main profit maker for Square Enix for fiscal year 2017. Now if we REALLY wanna speculate release dates, the FF7 remake will probably release sometime in 2018 as it will be the main profit maker for Square Enix in fiscal year 2018. You see where i am going here? Square Enix needs to spread out their releases to make profit each year

 

The fiscal year in Japan runs from April 1st to March 31st. Either game could come out at opposite ends of the year.

[Yuri Andrade 40]

there might not be anything KH related coming out in 2016 then. The only other possible thing is a DDD Remaster for PS4/XB1 but this hasn't been announced yet

That, or we might actually get KH3 later next year.

Say, if Tabata announces FFXV for the first semester, there's nothing keeping Square from releasing KH3 on the second one.

Nomura himself told us he thinks it's been a long time since the last numbered title.

Besides, if you roll back to these past few years, Square Enix has actually released Final Fantasy titles in the same year as KH titles. It's not a pattern, but there has been cases.

 

But, that's just me being optimistic, haha.

[Komali 594]

KH3 will probably break this pattern.

They will definitely release it simultaneously in every country. This means that they will hold back the japanese version of KH3 until it gets localized in other countries.

I also don't believe that the development is finished in 6 months.

The only possibilities are summer 2016 or spring 2017.

[sagman12PC 280]

KH3 will probably break this pattern.

They will definitely release it simultaneously in every country. This means that they will hold back the japanese version of KH3 until it gets localized in other countries.

I also don't believe that the development is finished in 6 months.

The only possibilities are summer 2016 or spring 2017.

i agree. Since FFXV is getting a worldwide release KH3 will most likely follow suit

[Shana09 5,769]

KH3 will probably break this pattern.

They will definitely release it simultaneously in every country. This means that they will hold back the japanese version of KH3 until it gets localized in other countries.

I also don't believe that the development is finished in 6 months.

The only possibilities are summer 2016 or spring 2017.

 

It doesn't have to break the pattern, they can still announce the release date for a worldwide release and still release it a couple of months later. They are gonna probably announce it in midway-2016 (E3 maybe, they seem to be showing more KH3 stuff here) to early 2017.  

Edited August 14, 2015 by Shana09

[gosoxtim 52]

i think kingdom hearts 3 will come out next year because nomura said we will get a kh game each year and he right so far

[Isamu Kuno 2,512]

FFXV March 2016

KH3 November 2016.

This is my hope.

[CrystalRaine 77]

FFXV March 2016KH3 November 2016.This is my hope.

 

That sounds plausible

[Gwynbleidd 551]

Just because FFXV is releasing in 2016, it doesn't mean that KH3 can't release that same year. The development of KH3 isn't affected by FFXV, and when the product is finished, they aren't going to wait to release it just because FFXV came out in the same year. Most likely, FFXV will release in Q2 2016, while KH3 will release in Q3 2016.

[Kingdomhe 1,362]

I honestly do not believe that KH3 will release in 2016 and here's why:

 

FFXV is already confirmed to be releasing sometime in 2016 according to Director Hajime Tabata. A precise release date will be given at PAX later this year. Based on this information alone, Square Enix would never release BOTH of their most anticipated titles from their respective franchises (FFXV and KH3) within the same year. Square Enix is a business and businesses exist to make profit. Square Enix needs to make a profit each fiscal year and for 2016 their main profit will come from FFXV and the Final Fantasy franchise. Kingdom Hearts III will most likely release the following year in 2017 as it will be the main profit maker for Square Enix for fiscal year 2017. Now if we REALLY wanna speculate release dates, the FF7 remake will probably release sometime in 2018 as it will be the main profit maker for Square Enix in fiscal year 2018. You see where i am going here? Square Enix needs to spread out their releases to make profit each year

thats not a excuse for it to not come out, companies release two heavy hitter games in the same year all the time